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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump by about 4.5 points on average. If polls underestimate Harris by the same amount, she will win all of the states 538 currently rates as toss-up states up to and including Florida.
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. KEY. ESTIMATE. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE.