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Prediction market. Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. [1]
The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
PredictIt is a New Zealand -based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. [1] PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington [2] with support from Aristotle, Inc. [3] The company's office is located in Washington, D.C. [4] The market was initially launched on 3 November 2014.
Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on an exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock prices reflect all currently available information and any ...
Polymarket was founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020 as an online prediction market platform that would allow users to trade on the outcome of world events. [2] In January 2022, the platform was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission , alongside receiving a cease and desist order, following regulation violations including ...
iPredict was a New Zealand prediction market that offered prediction exchanges on current events, political issues and economic issues. iPredict was jointly owned by the New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation and Victoria University of Wellington. [1] The site launched on 9 September 2008 and closed 1 December 2016.
They never changed the outcome of an election, so we don’t model them.) We simulated a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using our state-by-state averages. In 9.8 million simulations, Hillary Clinton ended up with at least 270 electoral votes. Therefore, we say Clinton has a 98.0 percent chance of becoming president. Frequency of electoral.
The PollyVote project uses the high-profile application of predicting U.S. presidential election results to demonstrate advances in forecasting research. The project is run by political science professors and forecasting experts, one of which is J. Scott Armstrong. All procedures, data, and results are fully disclosed and freely available online.